California Aftershock Hazard Forecasts

California aftershock hazard forecasts.

1) quantile points at the selected times, S, corresponding to the expected probability and ± 1 SD (Table 1). The standard error in P rapidly decreases with increasing time after the mainshock due to the inclusion of current data. For example, at S = 1 day after the mainshock, the ± 1 SD range about the generic 1-day interval probability (0.052) is 0.034 to 0.075 (Table 1). Rydelek suggests esti...

California aftershock model uncertainties.

Static Stress Drop in the 1994 Northridge , California , Aftershock Sequence

We use time-domain pulse widths to estimate static stress drops for 279 M L 2.5 to 4.0 aftershocks of the 17 January 1994, M w 6.7 Northridge, California, earthquake. The stress drops obtained range from 0.02 to 40 bars, with a log average of 0.75 bar. Error bars computed for our estimates are typically a factor of 5, indicating that the three order of magnitude scatter in stress drops is not s...

Moral Hazard, Firms’ Internal Governance and Management Earnings Forecasts

This paper investigates the role of management earnings forecasts in mitigating information asymmetry between investors and managers relating to moral hazard, and explains how earnings guidance can facilitate monitoring. I demonstrate that firms that are more susceptible to moral hazard problems and more difficult to monitor are also more likely to issue annual earnings forecasts and they do so...

X - 2 WERNER AND SORNETTE : MAGNITUDE UNCERTAINTIES AND FORECASTS the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence

The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) aims to prospectively test time-dependent earthquake probability forecasts on their consistency with observations. To compete, time-dependent seismicity models are calibrated on earthquake catalog data. But catalogs contain much observational uncertainty. We study the impact of magnitude uncertainties on rate estimates in clust...